Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdc0c…218a sports 540 markets active 0h ago coverage 191d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,653 (+3%) realized +$7,802 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%250W / 285L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$3,624est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 191d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$4,541
other 6% −$2,372
crypto 0% +$269
world 0% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -3.4% -12.6% 45% 45% -19.1%
≤30d 229 +8.8% -1.6% 47% 45% -4.2%
≤90d 381 +2.9% -6.9% 45% 43% -5.9%
all 535 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 45% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 45% -8.1%
10% -18.5% 44% -16.9%
15% -26.4% 43% -24.9%
20% -33.6% 38% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$422 vs −$363 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$2,919
Realized+$7,802
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses250 / 285
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,624
Open positions5
Markets (closed)535 / 540
History coverage191d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,115 $1,229 +$114 (+10%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ 40¢ $494 $488 −$6 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Talia Gibson 33¢ 22¢ $664 $450 −$214 (-32%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 29¢ 30¢ $435 $442 +$7 (+2%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 18¢ 16¢ $360 $310 −$50 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $477 −$470 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $462 −$455 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $854 −$368 -43%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $664 −$660 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $497 +$503 +101%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $210 +$800 +381%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 18 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $527 +$186 +35%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $279 +$874 +314%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $523 +$187 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $1,070 −$1,063 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $560 −$550 -98%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $745 +$555 +74%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $444 −$435 -98%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $871 +$399 +46%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $281 −$280 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $632 −$623 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $696 −$690 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $252 −$245 -97%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $776 +$624 +80%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $392 +$1,108 +283%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $534 +$394 +74%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $471 −$460 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $505 +$239 +47%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $512 −$500 -98%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $695 +$505 +73%
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,177 −$921 -78%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $676 +$524 +78%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1,116 −$146 -13%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $1,526 −$1,510 -99%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $574 −$569 -99%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $416 +$295 +71%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $1,014 +$646 +64%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $511 +$553 +108%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $410 −$400 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $557 −$550 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $447 +$553 +124%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $933 −$927 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 16 $622 −$619 -100%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $173 −$48 -28%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $660 −$188 -28%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $277 −$270 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $781 −$770 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $819 −$156 -19%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $854 −$847 -99%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $269 −$264 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $486 −$480 -99%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $674 +$475 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 22¢ $90 11m
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 21¢ $86 19m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $92 34m
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 41¢ $501 50m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $477 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 35¢ $72 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 35¢ $389 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 35¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 23¢ $141 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 23¢ $235 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 76¢ $755 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 47¢ $477 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $4 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $11 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $3 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $6 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $0 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $8 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $32 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $6 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $2 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $196 5h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 42¢ $214 5h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 29¢ $428 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,919.06 · official $2,908.46 (match) · 2498 history records