Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc13…2e49 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-16%) realized −$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$6
sports 10% −$25
world 10% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-51.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -46.7% -51.8% 33% 33% -28.0%
≤30d 9 -46.7% -51.8% 33% 33% -28.0%
≤90d 9 -46.7% -51.8% 33% 33% -28.0%
all 9 -46.7% -51.8% 33% 33% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.8% 33% -28.0%
10% -56.4% 33% -34.9%
15% -60.6% 33% -41.1%
20% -64.5% 22% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$30 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$11 +62%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 12h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $60 36h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.57 · official $40.57 (match) · 20 history records