Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc14…e0d9 world 39 markets active 4h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1
other 15% $0
sports 10% $0
politics 9% $0
finance 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 37 +0.6% -8.9% 51% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage280d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $49 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $11 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 07 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $30 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $34 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $34 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $37 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $38 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $7 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.53 · official $5.53 (match) · 133 history records