Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc16…7d64 sports 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$973 (-5%) realized −$974 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%69W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$123
14 days−$123
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$58
other 35% −$915
tech 1% −$139
world 1% +$3
finance 0% +$9
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.6% -35.4% 25% 0% -31.2%
≤30d 9 -32.5% -38.9% 44% 11% -34.9%
≤90d 62 -12.0% -20.4% 60% 42% -11.6%
all 111 -13.1% -21.4% 62% 50% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 50% -13.9%
10% -28.9% 16% -22.1%
15% -35.8% 6% -29.7%
20% -42.1% 5% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$127 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$974
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses69 / 42
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage180d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$5 -15%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $171 −$10 -6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $188 +$12 +6%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $46 +$4 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 26 $71 +$9 +13%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $93 −$92 -98%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $173 −$172 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $224 +$76 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $161 +$39 +24%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $98 −$96 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $123 +$77 +62%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $247 +$53 +21%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $352 −$350 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $299 +$51 +17%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 01 $159 −$158 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $218 −$216 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $117 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $233 +$17 +7%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $169 +$31 +18%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 28 $181 +$19 +11%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 25 $185 +$16 +8%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 22 $279 −$277 -99%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $369 +$31 +8%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $91 +$10 +11%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $268 +$32 +12%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-16? Apr 19 $214 +$37 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $274 +$26 +10%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 12 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 11 $356 −$355 -100%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 11 $43 −$42 -97%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 11 $249 +$49 +20%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 08 $108 −$105 -97%
Jazz vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $105 −$102 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $147 −$144 -98%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 07 $376 +$23 +6%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 07 $405 +$92 +23%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 05 $56 −$54 -97%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 05 $270 +$29 +11%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 05 $189 +$711 +376%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 01 $261 −$260 -100%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Apr 01 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-29? Apr 01 $406 +$94 +23%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 29 $130 −$130 -100%
Kings vs. Hawks Mar 29 $315 +$35 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $31 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $123 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $161 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $171 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $188 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $34 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 92¢ $46 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 24d
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $93 26d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? BUY Yes 88¢ $71 27d
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 28d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 86¢ $173 31d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $118 31d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 74¢ $224 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY Yes $4 36d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY No 80¢ $161 40d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 42d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 24¢ $98 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $123 44d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? BUY No 82¢ $247 44d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY No 88¢ $221 47d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY No 87¢ $44 47d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY No 87¢ $87 47d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? BUY Yes $3 47d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 85¢ $43 48d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 85¢ $256 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 79¢ $159 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.81 · official $174.81 (match) · 211 history records