Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc16…5c5f sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+18%) realized +$53 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$20
other 41% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +24.5% +12.7% 54% 54% +8.2%
≤30d 28 +24.5% +12.7% 54% 54% +8.2%
≤90d 28 +24.5% +12.7% 54% 54% +8.2%
all 28 +24.5% +12.7% 54% 54% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.7% 54% +8.2%
10% +1.9% 54% -2.2%
15% -7.9% 54% -11.6%
20% -17.0% 50% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)28 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $4 +$7 +185%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 +$8 +52%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$14 +69%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $17 −$17 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $2 +$4 +206%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $1 +$4 +325%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $1 +$4 +325%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$10 +93%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $4 +$7 +172%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 +$6 +109%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11 +$6 +53%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $6 20m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 30m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $9 37m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 49m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $4 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 99¢ $34 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $15 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 65¢ $17 13h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $20 14h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 32¢ $2 37h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $1 37h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $1 37h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 38h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $17 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 46h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 47h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 47h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $1 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $4 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 58¢ $10 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 94¢ $19 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.85 · official $48.85 (match) · 58 history records