Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc17…cdb5 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-12%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$42
sports 33% −$105
world 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -12.4% -20.7% 10% 10% -23.0%
≤30d 42 -12.4% -20.7% 10% 10% -23.0%
≤90d 42 -12.4% -20.7% 10% 10% -23.0%
all 43 -12.0% -20.4% 12% 9% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 9% -22.7%
10% -28.0% 9% -30.1%
15% -35.0% 9% -36.8%
20% -41.3% 9% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$10 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 38
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage121d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 +$50 +970%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 +$40 +784%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 England? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 England? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 2 England? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $19 +$116 +596%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $19 −$7 -35%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 2 Iraq? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 27 $31 −$13 -41%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$13 -62%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$11 -55%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $66 −$48 -73%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $16 +$98 +596%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $2 $0 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: 1st Ha BUY 18¢ $30 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Côte d BUY 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY 6¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $47 2d
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 England? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $38.97 · 90 history records