Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdc1b…be2d crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$152 (+5%) realized +$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate80%32W / 8L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$2
sports 26% +$140
crypto 20% +$13
economics 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 5 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.5%
≤90d 9 +2.7% -7.0% 100% 0% -6.8%
all 40 +4.4% -5.6% 80% 2% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 2% -5.1%
10% -14.6% 2% -14.2%
15% -22.9% 2% -22.5%
20% -30.4% 2% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×13.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×59.56 per $1 lost it wins $59.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses32 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage557d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $18 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $16 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Canadiens Nov 14 $125 +$140 +113%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 26 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 27 $22 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 28 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 28 $21 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 28 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024? Dec 18 $354 $0 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 18 $329 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 18 $298 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 18 $298 $0 -0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 18 $354 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 18 $354 $0 -0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 18 $360 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $31 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $30 9d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $37 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 94¢ $35 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 98¢ $16 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $18 33d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 97¢ $15 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $18 64d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 99¢ $14 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $18 93d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? BUY No 99¢ $15 122d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $17 122d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $15 153d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $16 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $16 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 183d
Stars vs. Canadiens BUY Stars 47¢ $125 227d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 98¢ $23 245d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 98¢ $22 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 98¢ $22 304d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 94¢ $15 339d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $30 339d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 365d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $21 397d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 95¢ $25 397d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $25 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $20 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $15 466d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $8 466d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $7 466d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.42 · official $30.42 (match) · 83 history records