Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdc1b…2dec crypto 26 markets active 5d ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$18 (+22%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$13
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +5.6% -4.5% 37% 37% +12.5%
≤30d 26 +29.7% +17.3% 35% 35% +9.0%
≤90d 26 +29.7% +17.3% 35% 35% +9.0%
all 26 +29.7% +17.3% 35% 35% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 35% +9.0%
10% +6.1% 35% -1.4%
15% -4.1% 35% -10.9%
20% -13.5% 35% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$15 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$9 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$14 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$4 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 29 $0 +$4 +900%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records