Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc1e…8f69 other 21 markets active 6d ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$3
other 46% −$3
sports 1% −$13
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 21 -0.9% -10.4% 19% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 5% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 5% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage133d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 13-19? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $7 $0 -0%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 27 $6 +$4 +82%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $353 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 05 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 04 $386 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $350 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 04 $725 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $359 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $372 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 02 $318 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $351 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 02 $301 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $396 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $329 $0 -0%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Jan 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 62d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 78d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 78d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 109d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 55¢ $6 111d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $15 132d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $388 132d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $388 132d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $352 132d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $353 132d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $383 132d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $383 132d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $386 133d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $386 133d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $350 133d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $350 133d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $370 133d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $370 134d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $359 134d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $359 134d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $382 134d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $383 134d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $372 134d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $372 134d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $318 135d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $318 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records