Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdc20…b266 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-44%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$45
crypto 5% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +143.9% +120.7% 100% 100% +120.7%
≤30d 1 +143.9% +120.7% 100% 100% +120.7%
≤90d 3 -18.7% -26.4% 33% 33% -51.2%
all 3 -18.7% -26.4% 33% 33% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 33% -51.2%
10% -33.5% 33% -55.8%
15% -39.9% 33% -60.1%
20% -45.8% 33% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$37 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage39d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $21 +$31 +144%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 38d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 38d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 38d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.27 · official $10.55 (match) · 8 history records