Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdc21…0726 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,096 (+9%) realized +$136 · open +$1,960
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,241per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$20,650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$172
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1,348
other 25% +$561
tech 5% −$92
economics 3% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +32.0% +19.5% 83% 83% +32.3%
≤30d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 62% 62% -6.5%
≤90d 10 +7.3% -2.9% 60% 50% -8.4%
all 10 +7.3% -2.9% 60% 50% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 50% -8.4%
10% -12.2% 50% -17.2%
15% -20.7% 50% -25.2%
20% -28.5% 40% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$54 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$20,650
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$1,960
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)10 / 19
History coverage97d
Avg bet$1,241
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $12,594 $13,877 +$1,283 (+10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $4,298 $4,796 +$498 (+12%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 69¢ 88¢ $701 $889 +$187 (+27%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $720 $708 −$12 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$35 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $63 +$39 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$35 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $97 +$46 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $830 −$29 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 07 $336 −$63 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 07 $2,113 +$65 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $97 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $384 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $48 43d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $277 44d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 73¢ $300 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $196 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $1,110 44d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1,183 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $326 44d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 69¢ $114 44d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 71¢ $4 44d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 57¢ $272 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $326 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $1,796 44d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2,178 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $84 46d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $167 46d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 92¢ $92 65d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 92¢ $92 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,650.27 · official $20,650.28 (match) · 112 history records