Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DC 0xdc26…7e7d world 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$167,069 (+24%) realized +$170,025 · open −$2,956
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%68W / 37L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$6,245per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$26,911now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,324
7 days+$13,655
14 days+$15,138
30 days+$102,078
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$60,899
economics 26% +$4,927
crypto 18% +$88,668
other 14% +$9,488
politics 4% −$1,967
sports 0% $0
finance 0% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.1% +11.4% 50% 50% +74.9%
≤30d 12 +46.9% +32.9% 75% 58% +68.1%
≤90d 56 +64.0% +48.3% 66% 34% +23.9%
all 105 +42.2% +28.7% 65% 29% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.7% 29% +13.1%
10% ← realistic here +16.4% 22% +2.2%
15% +5.1% 18% -7.6%
20% -5.2% 16% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$4,286) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +68% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,810 vs −$723 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.34 per $1 lost it wins $7.34
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$26,911
Realized+$170,025
Unrealized−$2,956
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses68 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)105 / 113
History coverage160d
Avg bet$6,245
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $8,800 $8,750 −$50 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 18¢ $3,964 $7,989 +$4,025 (+102%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 68¢ 50¢ $6,161 $4,577 −$1,584 (-26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $4,350 $3,375 −$975 (-22%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 61¢ 20¢ $6,070 $1,975 −$4,095 (-67%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $222 $206 −$16 (-7%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 18¢ $300 $39 −$261 (-87%)
Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $4,286 −$1,921 -45%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 +$89 +103%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $54 −$53 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $420 −$400 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7,370 +$13,609 +185%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,435 +$2,331 +96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37,607 +$1,483 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24,407 +$19,717 +81%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $35,383 +$64,433 +182%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $1,560 +$479 +31%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 25 $3,646 +$173 +5%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 25 $1,749 +$2,138 +122%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 12 $89 +$213 +240%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 11 $7 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $3,181 +$6,128 +193%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $10,543 +$29,252 +277%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? May 10 $155 −$152 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $2,914 +$10,475 +360%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 08 $3,600 +$1,150 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 07 $3,732 +$777 +21%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $2,950 +$2,050 +70%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $960 +$40 +4%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Apr 29 $30 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $49,100 +$900 +2%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 24 $720 +$280 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before Apr 22 $233 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 20 $11,531 +$109 +1%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? Apr 18 $183 −$45 -25%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Apr 17 $87 −$58 -67%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $352 +$26 +7%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 7-13? Apr 13 $162 +$8 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $19,980 +$20 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $1,855 −$1,119 -60%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 09 $3,232 +$1,021 +32%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $90,726 +$4,864 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $210 +$705 +336%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $3,129 −$325 -10%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 06 $75 +$2 +2%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Apr 03 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Apr 03 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Apr 03 $700 −$700 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $13,876 +$1,341 +10%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 03 $24,827 +$890 +4%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? Apr 02 $6,114 +$288 +5%
Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 02 $13 +$28 +222%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $100 +$100 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $1,310 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $175 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $20 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $1 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $10 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $698 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $50 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $43 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $233 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $86 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $8,800 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 24¢ $1,291 2h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 68¢ $54 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No $21 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No $45 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No $138 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No $66 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $0 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $20,979 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $4,350 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $2,520 2d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 87¢ $223 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $980 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $551 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $712 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,290 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,266 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2,800 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,169 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,910.73 · official $26,898.24 (match) · 1708 history records