Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc29…422a sports 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,978 (-8%) realized −$5,133 · open +$155
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%80W / 125L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$633est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,431
7 days+$2,514
14 days+$2,563
30 days+$1,748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$3,405
other 39% −$7,079
world 2% −$698
crypto 1% −$469
politics 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +62.5% +47.0% 57% 57% +49.1%
≤30d 58 +14.6% +3.7% 40% 40% +5.3%
≤90d 158 -0.9% -10.4% 39% 39% -4.2%
all 205 +3.3% -6.5% 39% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 39% -17.4%
10% -15.5% 38% -25.3%
15% -23.7% 37% -32.5%
20% -31.1% 35% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$234 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$5,133
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses80 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$633
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 224
History coverage276d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 39¢ 100¢ $99 $255 +$155 (+156%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $112 −$109 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $264 −$260 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 +$201 +197%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $241 +$571 +237%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $784 +$409 +52%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $130 +$258 +198%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $53 −$52 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $197 +$354 +180%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mor Jun 24 $148 +$180 +122%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $146 −$144 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $237 −$234 -99%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams t Jun 23 $40 +$162 +406%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $152 +$160 +105%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $56 +$93 +165%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $152 +$154 +101%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $46 −$45 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026 Jun 21 $219 +$346 +158%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $153 +$207 +135%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$84 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $29 −$28 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $228 +$204 +89%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $41 +$170 +414%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $46 +$104 +226%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$265 +262%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $497 +$521 +105%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $85 −$83 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $449 −$442 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $115 −$113 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $99 −$96 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev Jun 07 $82 −$80 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $192 −$187 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $57 −$55 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $241 −$237 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $889 −$874 -98%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $386 −$37 -10%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $507 −$496 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $205 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $211 +$184 +87%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $67 −$65 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $299 +$268 +90%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $259 +$796 +307%
Set 1 Winner: Halys vs Zverev May 29 $111 −$108 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $89 −$87 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 29 $289 −$283 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $101 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States BUY 23¢ $100 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States BUY 22¢ $165 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 30¢ $112 5h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sw BUY 26¢ $158 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $20 5h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 AND Wil BUY $5 5h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY $25 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U BUY 33¢ $337 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 26¢ $105 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 25¢ $30 6h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 25¢ $30 6h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 25¢ $30 6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $264 6h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao v BUY 23¢ $40 6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1 BUY 19¢ $35 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Ecuad BUY $10 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1 BUY 18¢ $50 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 22¢ $205 21h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 BUY 40¢ $102 27h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $303 27h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $812 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,193 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $388 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL 74¢ $387 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $396 28h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 33¢ $102 28h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 13¢ $53 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $551 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.90 · official $713.88 · 576 history records