Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DC 0xdc2b…cec3 sports 74 markets active 1d ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,872 (+28%) realized +$1,872 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%39W / 35L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$67
14 days+$1,088
30 days+$1,920
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,806
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 42% -6.5%
≤30d 50 +14.9% +4.0% 52% 52% +18.8%
≤90d 67 +14.5% +3.6% 54% 52% +14.7%
all 74 +19.1% +7.8% 53% 51% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 51% +14.7%
10% -2.5% 47% +3.7%
15% -11.9% 45% -6.3%
20% -20.6% 41% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$68 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,872
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses39 / 35
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage95d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $142 −$139 -98%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $373 +$355 +95%
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $143 +$147 +103%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs Passion Academy (+1.5) Jun 18 $152 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $462 +$86 +19%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $152 +$137 +90%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 17 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $80 +$310 +388%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$131 +65%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $66 −$65 -98%
Map Handicap: MZP (-1.5) vs Atputies (+1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) Jun 11 $203 +$247 +121%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $203 +$168 +83%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $102 +$19 +19%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $92 −$91 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $33 +$181 +550%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 08 $60 −$59 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $250 +$335 +134%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $92 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $200 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 06 $99 +$87 +88%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs INFURITY Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $250 +$243 +97%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $200 −$197 -99%
Map Handicap: ENCE (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) Jun 04 $200 +$297 +149%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $200 +$172 +86%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $200 +$104 +52%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $200 +$194 +97%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs LPH Gaming (+1.5) Jun 02 $80 +$121 +152%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $52 +$45 +86%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $122 −$120 -98%
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs 25 cents (+1.5) May 27 $14 −$14 -97%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 26 $86 +$102 +118%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $189 −$186 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner May 26 $70 −$68 -98%
Map Handicap: SAW (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) May 25 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner May 24 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Kinoa (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 24 $71 +$81 +114%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $71 +$84 +119%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage May 24 $79 +$63 +79%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Q May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europ May 22 $99 +$32 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY EAC Rising 31¢ $142 34h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 99¢ $728 34h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $373 35h
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) BUY Coalesce 40¢ $204 38h
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs Passion Academy (+1.5) BUY ex-MANA eSports 45¢ $152 2d
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 49¢ $143 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 46¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 88¢ $548 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 74¢ $462 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 12¢ $31 2d
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 45¢ $97 3d
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 35¢ $82 3d
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 52¢ $152 3d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Ilbirs eSports 20¢ $80 7d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 30¢ $36 7d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 41¢ $66 7d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 60¢ $202 7d
Map Handicap: MZP (-1.5) vs Atputies (+1.5) BUY Atputies 8¢ $16 7d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY UNiTY esports 17¢ $10 9d
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) BUY ex-MANA eSports 44¢ $203 9d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner SELL Fluxo W7M 59¢ $121 10d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 48¢ $102 10d
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) BUY G2 Ares 54¢ $203 10d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 1¢ $2 10d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Level UP 41¢ $3 10d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 48¢ $87 10d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 40¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 - Map 2 Winner BUY L.820 15¢ $33 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records