Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DC 0xdc2f…20a5 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge

Total PnL +$644 (+59%) realized +$611 · open +$33

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip

Net edge+46%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%15W / 15L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit77%portable

Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$129

7 days+$548

14 days+$622

30 days+$622

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+52.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+65.0%	+49.3%	48%	48%	+41.7%
≤30d	30	+68.2%	+52.2%	50%	50%	+44.5%
≤90d	30	+68.2%	+52.2%	50%	50%	+44.5%
all	30	+68.2%	+52.2%	50%	50%	+44.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+52.2%	50%	+44.5%
10%	+37.6%	50%	+30.7%
15%	+24.3%	50%	+18.0%
20%	+12.1%	50%	+6.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +68% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +153% → late -17% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$71 vs −$30 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$78

Realized+$611

Unrealized+$33

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses15 / 15

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)30 / 31

History coverage9d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Paper Rex	46¢	80¢	$45	$78	+$33 (+73%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$51	−$5	-10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$23	−$23	-100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$29	−$29	-100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$35	−$34	-98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	Jun 18	$30	−$30	-100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$24	−$24	-100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$51	+$68	+134%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$76	+$39	+52%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 17	$25	−$25	-100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$25	+$61	+246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$25	+$82	+324%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	Jun 16	$25	−$25	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 15	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$25	+$23	+93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$115	+226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$24	+$61	+249%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$24	+$70	+291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$26	+$153	+596%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Jun 13	$19	+$78	+408%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 13	$51	+$43	+85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$49	+$54	+110%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	Jun 12	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$50	+$125	+249%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets	Jun 12	$24	−$24	-100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	Jun 10	$25	+$57	+226%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	Jun 10	$26	+$42	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Paper Rex	46¢	$46	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$46	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$23	24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$35	37h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$29	37h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUY Cincinnati Reds	45¢	$30	47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$24	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$26	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$115	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$76	2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$86	3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY FUT Esports	37¢	$25	3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	BUY XLG Gaming	33¢	$26	3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$107	3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$25	3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$25	4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	43¢	$25	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$48	4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	33¢	$26	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$166	4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$85	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$25	5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$24	5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$94	5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	SELL XLG Gaming	99¢	$97	5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	BUY XLG Gaming	19¢	$19	5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	SELL EDward Gaming	87¢	$94	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.50 · official $65.66 · 69 history records