Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc31…ab97 crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-24%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%52W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$57
14 days−$134
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$162
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -24.0% -31.2% 37% 36% -36.0%
≤30d 167 -28.1% -35.0% 31% 29% -36.4%
≤90d 167 -28.1% -35.0% 31% 29% -36.4%
all 167 -28.1% -35.0% 31% 29% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 29% -36.4%
10% -41.2% 29% -42.5%
15% -46.9% 26% -48.0%
20% -52.1% 22% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses52 / 115
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$12 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 481 history records