Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc31…46b6 world 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate29%28W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$4
other 25% +$3
sports 15% −$7
politics 9% −$3
economics 7% −$1
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 11% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 27 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 83 -2.1% -11.4% 27% 5% -9.5%
all 98 -4.8% -13.9% 29% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 6% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses28 / 70
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage532d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $42 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $85 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $142 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $110 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $45 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $71 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $70 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $8 +$2 +28%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $89 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $13 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $45 +$7 +15%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $85 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $2 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $45 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $92 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $123 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $131 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $45 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $46 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $46 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $4 25h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $2 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $2 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $38 33h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $38 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $42 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $13 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $42 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records