Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DC 0xdc36…a9dc other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$133 (+24%) realized +$143 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+24.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+37.9%	+24.8%	100%	100%	+26.4%
≤30d	5	+37.9%	+24.8%	100%	100%	+26.4%
≤90d	5	+37.9%	+24.8%	100%	100%	+26.4%
all	5	+37.9%	+24.8%	100%	100%	+26.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.8%	100%	+26.4%
10%	+12.9%	60%	+14.3%
15%	+2.0%	60%	+3.2%
20%	-8.0%	40%	-6.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage

Net worth$52

Realized+$143

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage24d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	52¢	44¢	$62	$52	−$10 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$102	+$47	+46%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$99	+$15	+15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$129	+$71	+55%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$85	+$44	+52%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 24	$70	+$15	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$63	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	82¢	$149	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	99¢	$113	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$99	3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$102	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	96¢	$200	22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$129	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	65¢	$85	31h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	82¢	$70	23d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.84 · official $51.84 (match) · 11 history records