Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc38…9750 other 15 markets active 1d ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$623 (+7%) realized +$623 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days+$213
14 days+$235
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$101
sports 20% +$650
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -40.7% -46.4% 33% 33% -6.8%
≤30d 14 -33.6% -39.9% 36% 36% -6.6%
≤90d 14 -33.6% -39.9% 36% 36% -6.6%
all 15 -29.3% -36.0% 40% 40% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 40% -3.6%
10% -42.1% 27% -12.8%
15% -47.7% 13% -21.2%
20% -52.8% 7% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$82 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$623
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage146d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 +$144 +94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$7 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $474 +$212 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $874 −$460 -53%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $101 +$18 +18%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $109 −$106 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,124 +$572 +11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $34 −$2 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $1,000 +$314 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 32h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $124 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $70 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $103 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $195 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $622 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $405 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $415 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $874 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 88¢ $118 5d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 22¢ $109 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 5d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $5,697 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $5,124 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $64 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $32 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $125 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $69 7d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 100¢ $1,314 146d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 76¢ $1,000 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records