Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc3b…3caf crypto 215 markets active 5d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$270 (-7%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate71%152W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$68
sports 6% −$103
weather 4% −$122
world 3% +$3
other 3% −$16
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -3.6% -12.8% 64% 54% -17.7%
≤30d 61 -3.6% -12.8% 64% 54% -17.7%
≤90d 215 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 45% -17.2%
all 215 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 45% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 45% -17.2%
10% -20.6% 28% -25.1%
15% -28.3% 20% -32.3%
20% -35.3% 13% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses152 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)215 / 215
History coverage61d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 215 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$11 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 756 history records