Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdc3b…d591 sports 1221 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,939 (-10%) realized −$3,004 · open +$65
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%553W / 656L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$400est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$455
7 days−$531
14 days−$1,467
30 days−$6,519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$3,251
other 7% −$25
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -11.1% -19.5% 43% 39% -20.1%
≤30d 1033 -19.2% -26.9% 39% 37% -34.2%
≤90d 1209 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 44% -19.6%
all 1209 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 44% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 44% -19.6%
10% -23.6% 43% -27.3%
15% -31.0% 42% -34.3%
20% -37.7% 36% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized−$3,004
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses553 / 656
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$400
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1209 / 1221
History coverage160d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 46¢ 100¢ $23 $51 +$28 (+117%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming 47¢ 100¢ $24 $50 +$26 (+113%)
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 Under 41¢ 69¢ $20 $35 +$14 (+69%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 53¢ 58¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+10%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 44¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-14%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Paper Rex 45¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF San Gregorio: Marta Lombardini vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 19 $22 +$28 +124%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 19 $6 +$8 +140%
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Pietro Fellin Jun 19 $6 $0 -7%
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $26 +$24 +93%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $27 +$24 +90%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $52 −$2 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $33 −$19 -57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $24 −$24 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $25 +$25 +97%
Zverev vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $27 +$23 +86%
ITF Klosters: Noah Karma vs Justin Schlageter Jun 18 $11 +$10 +93%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $44 +$6 +14%
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $23 +$27 +114%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 18 $24 +$26 +109%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $0 +$1 +125%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
ITF Sapporo: Mutsumi Uemura vs Yuhan Liu Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$26 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $7 +$8 +129%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $12 +$10 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$14 +93%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Krumich vs. Silva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 41¢ $21 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 46¢ $24 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $26 1h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 45¢ $2 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 47¢ $24 2h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 53¢ $27 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Marta Lombardini vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 44¢ $22 6h
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Pietro Fellin BUY Mate Valkusz 53¢ $6 7h
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) BUY Coalesce 41¢ $21 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 48¢ $24 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 49¢ $27 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 41¢ $6 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $26 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $25 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $27 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $25 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $27 22h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $24 23h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 44¢ $6 24h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 53¢ $27 24h
Zverev vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 41¢ $6 25h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 50¢ $25 28h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 49¢ $3 28h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 43¢ $2 28h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $17 34h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 47¢ $20 35h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 44¢ $0 35h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 36h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $3 36h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $24 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.18 · official $421.63 · 2482 history records