Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc3e…6faa other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+16%) realized −$1 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$20
other 46% +$8
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +40.2% +26.9% 35% 35% -0.7%
≤30d 43 +40.2% +26.9% 35% 35% -0.7%
≤90d 43 +40.2% +26.9% 35% 35% -0.7%
all 43 +40.2% +26.9% 35% 35% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.9% 35% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here +14.7% 35% -10.2%
15% +3.6% 35% -18.9%
20% -6.5% 33% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +114% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)43 / 63
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $2 $22 +$20 (+982%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 42¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+182%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+48%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 25¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+42%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 16¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$4 +275%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +95%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$1 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$4 +237%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$6 +201%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +413%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 +$23 +2214%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $2 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 15h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 15h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 16¢ $1 15h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 15h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $6 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 1¢ $3 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.28 · official $47.77 · 112 history records