Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc45…14bc sports 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$462 (-6%) realized −$243 · open −$219
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%96W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$61
14 days+$140
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$72
other 26% +$126
crypto 13% −$250
politics 2% −$99
weather 1% +$27
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -20.4% -28.0% 35% 35% -12.0%
≤30d 49 -13.6% -21.9% 39% 39% -4.3%
≤90d 145 -31.0% -37.5% 32% 32% -22.1%
all 217 -7.0% -15.9% 44% 44% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 44% -8.5%
10% -23.9% 44% -17.3%
15% -31.3% 44% -25.3%
20% -38.0% 41% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$774
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses96 / 121
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions20
Markets (closed)217 / 241
History coverage107d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $100 $162 +$62 (+62%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 63¢ $98 $104 +$7 (+7%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $58 $69 +$11 (+19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $39 $67 +$28 (+74%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-12%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $59 $48 −$11 (-19%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $25 $44 +$19 (+76%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-9%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 30¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-49%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 20¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 97¢ $9 $19 +$10 (+111%)
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners Over 41¢ 17¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-58%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 6¢ $40 $6 −$34 (-84%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 1¢ $80 $1 −$79 (-98%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 57¢ 1¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $61 +$144 +235%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $26 +$53 +206%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $70 +$35 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $46 +$48 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$62 +294%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $95 −$95 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 AND Jun 21 $77 +$71 +92%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. S Jun 20 $102 +$119 +117%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $81 +$103 +127%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $54 +$41 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs. B Jun 18 $102 +$120 +118%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $71 +$61 +86%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$74 +92%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $37 +$50 +134%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $61 +$64 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $121 +$92 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
Credit One Charleston Open: Paula Badosa vs Anna Kalinskaya Apr 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $41 55m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 31¢ $26 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 57¢ $51 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $81 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 41¢ $25 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $9 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Jasmine Paolini 54¢ $51 15h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $104 24h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $70 28h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $26 28h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $51 28h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 29¢ $61 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $54 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 27¢ $46 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 58¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde BUY 51¢ $101 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 AND BUY 51¢ $77 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Norway v BUY 8¢ $73 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. S BUY 45¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $773.86 · official $764.36 · 567 history records