Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc45…92aa crypto 1214 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,001 (-11%) realized −$2,000 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%596W / 613L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$15
14 days−$275
30 days−$2,360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,289
world 2% −$53
politics 0% −$2
other 0% +$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 49% -9.9%
≤30d 834 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 46% -22.6%
≤90d 1209 -11.2% -19.7% 49% 38% -21.3%
all 1209 -11.2% -19.7% 49% 38% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 38% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 36% -28.8%
15% -34.4% 33% -35.7%
20% -40.8% 30% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$2,000
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses596 / 613
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1209 / 1214
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 262 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$18 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $309 +$199 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $196 −$190 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $108 −$105 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $616 +$353 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $186 −$180 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$45 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $82 +$51 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $150 −$44 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$10 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.28 · official $30.57 · 3500 history records