Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc47…eb82 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+4%) realized +$81 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$110
other 39% +$170
finance 8% −$21
sports 3% +$7
politics 1% −$4
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.4% -18.1% 36% 36% -1.5%
≤30d 16 -20.0% -27.6% 31% 31% -4.8%
≤90d 44 +2.7% -7.0% 43% 39% -4.8%
all 46 +0.4% -9.1% 41% 37% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 37% -6.9%
10% -17.8% 35% -15.8%
15% -25.8% 30% -23.9%
20% -33.1% 24% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$14 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage92d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 65¢ 54¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $85 +$59 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 −$2 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$13 +49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$28 +110%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -91%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$36 +40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $95 +$43 +46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $158 −$26 -16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 24 $13 −$11 -87%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $88 +$65 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $100 −$87 -87%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $93 +$24 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? Apr 18 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $4 +$12 +277%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 +$23 +235%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 08 $30 −$5 -18%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $123 +$21 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $21 +$18 +85%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 07 $7 +$3 +48%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 06 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 06 $20 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 04 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $58 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $311 −$50 -16%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $10 +$13 +123%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $48 −$12 -26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $29 −$22 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $41 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $144 19h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $42 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $54 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $37 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $126 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $90 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $95 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $84 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.17 · official $53.17 (match) · 151 history records