Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc48…e792 other 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$838 (-2%) realized −$811 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%52W / 213L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$210
7 days+$222
14 days+$326
30 days+$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$383
crypto 13% +$319
sports 12% −$1,138
world 2% −$58
politics 2% −$52
finance 0% −$19
culture 0% −$17
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$3
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -35.6% -41.8% 19% 16% -4.9%
≤30d 62 -18.8% -26.5% 21% 18% -2.9%
≤90d 72 -21.5% -29.0% 21% 15% -3.9%
all 265 -19.2% -26.9% 20% 8% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 8% -11.0%
10% -33.9% 8% -19.5%
15% -40.3% 7% -27.3%
20% -46.1% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$36 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized−$811
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses52 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)265 / 288
History coverage229d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $77 −$29 -38%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 20 $16 −$12 -79%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$52 +510%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Karmine Corp Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Jun 19 $7 −$5 -82%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $113 +$119 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the match not air? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Brazil vs Ha Jun 18 $17 −$8 -48%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 18 $18 −$10 -54%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Brazil vs Haiti Jun 18 $18 −$7 -37%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 +$82 +73%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $113 +$166 +146%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $112 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $112 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $20 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 16h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $45 16h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 16h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $52 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 26h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 32h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 5¢ $10 32h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 32h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 32h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World SELL Yes 4¢ $1 32h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World SELL No 16¢ $3 32h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY No 89¢ $15 36h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 4¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 40h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 40h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 29¢ $51 40h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 40h
Will Karmine Corp Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage SELL Yes 6¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.95 · official $569.95 · 1012 history records