Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc49…d6d1 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$8
politics 33% +$3
other 11% −$3
sports 3% −$8
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.4% 31% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 28 -5.1% -14.1% 25% 0% -10.2%
all 41 -2.9% -12.2% 29% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 10% -10.6%
10% -20.6% 10% -19.1%
15% -28.2% 10% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 10% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage522d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $56 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $27 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $29 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $93 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $58 −$4 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $30 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $1 $0 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $410 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $4 $0 -12%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Dec 11 $2 +$3 +122%
Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
North Carolina vs. Clemson Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Wednesday? Feb 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Coppa Italia: AC Milan vs. Roma (To Advance) Feb 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Terry McLaurin score a touchdown? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zach Ertz score a touchdown? Feb 02 $14 −$7 -49%
Will Curtis Samuel score a touchdown? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will James Cook score a touchdown? Feb 02 $8 +$8 +96%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Jan 15 $2 +$8 +376%
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-14? Jan 15 $8 +$6 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $25 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $23 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $26 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $27 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $17 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.35 · official $25.35 (match) · 134 history records