Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc4d…bf17 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%11W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$3
politics 34% −$2
sports 10% −$1
world 6% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 75% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 75% 0% -9.5%
all 72 -4.7% -13.8% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses11 / 61
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage397d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $124 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $118 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $60 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Dec 23 $58 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $62 $0 -1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $122 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 30 $121 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $126 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 21 $1 $0 -33%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 31 $1 $0 -15%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $123 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $126 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 23 $190 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,500 or more? Sep 13 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 31h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 7d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $60 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 100¢ $61 23d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $59 115d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 143d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $59 144d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $59 146d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 147d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 148d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 149d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 152d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $60 153d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $60 154d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 155d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $61 157d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $61 158d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $61 161d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $60 162d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $60 164d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 165d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 168d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $58 170d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $57 171d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 172d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 174d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.61 · official $58.61 (match) · 309 history records