Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:02:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc4f…ae07 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized −$158 · open +$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day46.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$172
other 12% −$2
sports 11% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 44% -8.2%
≤30d 18 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 44% -8.2%
≤90d 18 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 44% -8.2%
all 18 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 44% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 44% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 28% -17.0%
15% -30.2% 11% -25.0%
20% -37.0% 6% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$170
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day46.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 2¢ 50¢ $5 $124 +$119 (+2374%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $56 +$54 (+4848%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 67¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 91¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$42 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$6 +18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +23%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -90%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.70 · official $186.70 (match) · 72 history records