Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc50…255f crypto 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-8%) realized −$59 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate48%142W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$9
14 days+$8
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$23
world 15% −$12
other 11% −$20
tech 10% −$17
finance 4% −$12
politics 4% +$1
sports 4% +$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 10% -24.0%
≤30d 255 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 18% -18.3%
≤90d 298 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 16% -20.4%
all 298 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 16% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 16% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 11% -28.0%
15% -34.9% 8% -35.0%
20% -41.3% 6% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses142 / 156
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions56
Markets (closed)298 / 354
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+105%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 98¢ 97¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 18¢ 28¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+52%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 27¢ 89¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+228%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 61¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Yes 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $160 in June? No 72¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 74¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 83¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 27¢ 87¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+222%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +207%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $205? Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? Jun 12 $1 $0 -49%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Pete Hoekstra as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -25%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2 Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -48%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -42%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -86%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 09 $1 $0 -46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $4 $0 -1%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -23%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? SELL No $0 42m
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 86¢ $0 47m
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes $0 49m
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 89¢ $0 59m
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? SELL No $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 15h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No $1 20h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 21h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 22h
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 23h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes $0 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.72 · official $101.78 · 1729 history records