Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

DC 0xdc5a…5491 sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$792 (-15%) realized −$831 · open +$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate29%24W / 58L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$60per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$33est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$119

7 days−$189

14 days−$189

30 days−$223

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-27.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-75.8%	-78.1%	0%	0%	-65.3%
≤30d	5	-80.7%	-82.5%	0%	0%	-68.8%
≤90d	43	-32.5%	-38.9%	21%	21%	-40.7%
all	82	-19.4%	-27.1%	29%	28%	-24.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.1%	28%	-24.2%
10%	-34.0%	27%	-31.4%
15%	-40.4%	24%	-38.1%
20%	-46.3%	24%	-44.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

4% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -5% → late -34% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$34 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage

Net worth$293

Realized−$831

Unrealized+$39

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses24 / 58

Est. fees paid−$33

Open positions4

Markets (closed)82 / 86

History coverage109d

Avg bet$60

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 82 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5)	REKONIX	41¢	64¢	$74	$116	+$42 (+57%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Team Falcons	41¢	40¢	$73	$70	−$3 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs	KOLESIE	36¢	36¢	$62	$62	+$0 (+0%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	No	40¢	40¢	$46	$46	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5)	Jun 19	$56	−$55	-99%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European	Jun 19	$65	−$64	-98%
Shelton vs. Kyrgios: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Jun 16	$122	−$4	-3%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof	Jun 16	$66	−$66	-99%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe	Jun 01	$35	−$35	-98%
Counter-Strike: FC Famalicão Esports vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - ESL	Apr 25	$72	−$5	-7%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5)	Apr 13	$6	+$10	+158%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Resilience (BO3) - DreamLeague China Clo	Apr 12	$5	−$5	-97%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch	Apr 12	$6	−$6	-98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega	Apr 12	$20	−$20	-98%
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?	Apr 12	$66	−$65	-98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Euro	Apr 12	$42	−$41	-98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	Apr 12	$57	+$65	+114%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch	Apr 09	$11	−$11	-100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playo	Apr 09	$32	+$38	+119%
Counter-Strike: ex-ENCE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playof	Apr 08	$88	−$2	-2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha	Apr 08	$32	−$31	-99%
First Blood in Game 1?	Apr 08	$19	−$19	-98%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner	Apr 08	$27	−$27	-100%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs eLITenergy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series	Apr 08	$53	+$63	+119%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5)	Apr 07	$43	−$42	-98%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A	Apr 07	$56	−$55	-98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Apr 05	$38	−$37	-98%
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs MINLATE (BO3) - European Pro Leagu	Apr 05	$13	+$32	+249%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?	Apr 04	$29	−$29	-98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season	Apr 04	$37	−$36	-98%
Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs Pcific Esports (+1.5)	Apr 04	$50	+$54	+108%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)	Apr 03	$38	−$38	-100%
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	Apr 03	$88	−$88	-100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner	Apr 03	$28	−$28	-100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qual	Apr 03	$28	−$28	-100%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner	Apr 03	$38	−$38	-100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner	Apr 03	$46	−$45	-98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs WW Team (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Qua	Apr 03	$27	−$27	-100%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - ESL Challenger L	Apr 03	$50	−$2	-3%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series	Mar 31	$56	−$2	-4%
Yi Zhou vs. Yasutaka Uchiyama: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Mar 31	$100	−$2	-2%
Miyazaki: Rio Noguchi vs Tung-Lin Wu	Mar 31	$38	+$48	+126%
Set Handicap: Linette (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5)	Mar 31	$58	−$2	-3%
Naples: Vitaliy Sachko vs Federico Cina	Mar 31	$44	−$44	-100%
Jerami Grant: Points O/U 17.5	Mar 26	$28	+$66	+234%
Sao Paulo: Tomas Barrios vs Thiago Monteiro	Mar 26	$17	+$17	+100%
Bucaramanga: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Daniel Salazar	Mar 26	$32	−$32	-100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou	Mar 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)	Mar 21	$29	−$29	-100%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - ESL Challenger League	Mar 21	$72	−$22	-31%
Valorant: Joblife vs Stallions Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C	Mar 21	$100	−$30	-30%
Map Handicap: FA (-1.5) vs Players (+1.5)	Mar 21	$100	−$2	-2%
Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea	Mar 20	$186	−$186	-100%
Game Handicap: BAM (-1.5) vs Lupus Esports (+1.5)	Mar 20	$107	−$107	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5)	BUY REKONIX	41¢	$75	57m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	41¢	$74	1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S	BUY KOLESIE	37¢	$21	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	40¢	$47	1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S	BUY KOLESIE	36¢	$42	1h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5)	BUY SHISHKA	51¢	$56	20h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European	BUY NAVI Junior	36¢	$65	20h
Shelton vs. Kyrgios: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	BUY Over	51¢	$122	3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof	BUY 100 Thieves	56¢	$66	4d
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe	BUY eternal premium	25¢	$35	18d
Counter-Strike: FC Famalicão Esports vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - ESL	BUY Aurora Young Blood	53¢	$72	56d
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Resilience (BO3) - DreamLeague China Clo	BUY Cloud Dawning	13¢	$5	69d
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch	BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers	22¢	$6	69d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega	BUY Wolves Esports	23¢	$20	69d
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?	BUY Over	49¢	$66	69d
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5)	BUY Team Secret Whales	38¢	$6	69d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Euro	BUY Nigma Galaxy	50¢	$42	69d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch	BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers	32¢	$11	72d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	BUY Over	46¢	$57	72d
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playo	BUY Tricked	45¢	$32	72d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha	BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers	32¢	$19	72d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha	BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers	32¢	$1	72d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha	BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers	31¢	$12	72d
First Blood in Game 1?	BUY GamerLegion	38¢	$19	73d
Counter-Strike: ex-ENCE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playof	BUY ex-ENCE	50¢	$88	73d
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5)	BUY PARIVISION	46¢	$43	73d
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs eLITenergy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series	BUY Rune Eaters	45¢	$53	74d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A	BUY 1win	30¢	$56	74d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	38¢	$38	76d
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?	BUY Over	48¢	$29	77d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.28 · official $288.79 · 170 history records