Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc5c…fdcc crypto 374 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%197W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$226
14 days−$25
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$481
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 45% -25.4%
≤30d 165 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 52% -9.3%
≤90d 373 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 48% -15.0%
all 373 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 48% -15.0%
10% -21.1% 45% -23.2%
15% -28.7% 39% -30.6%
20% -35.7% 33% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses197 / 176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 374
History coverage55d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 39¢ 38¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$15 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $85 −$68 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $92 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$18 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$27 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $58 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $34 +$21 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$35 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $38 +$45 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $28 −$24 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $44 +$32 +74%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$75 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$48 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $28 +$25 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $35 +$62 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $56 −$24 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $47 +$73 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $24 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $23 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $92 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.71 · official $30.37 · 883 history records