Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc5d…4a56 sports 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$245 (+4%) realized −$28,674 · open +$28,919
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%47W / 45L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$30,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$28,399
other 44% +$715
world 8% +$37
crypto 1% +$14
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +44.1% +30.3% 54% 41% -17.3%
≤30d 92 +27.7% +15.5% 51% 40% -13.9%
≤90d 92 +27.7% +15.5% 51% 40% -13.9%
all 92 +27.7% +15.5% 51% 40% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.5% 40% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here +4.5% 29% -22.1%
15% -5.6% 27% -29.7%
20% -14.9% 24% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$28 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$30,686
Realized−$28,674
Unrealized+$28,919
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses47 / 45
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions35
Markets (closed)92 / 127
History coverage18d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? No 0¢ 72¢ $38 $27,912 +$27,874 (+72400%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 22¢ 54¢ $332 $795 +$463 (+140%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Yes 0¢ 8¢ $6 $478 +$472 (+7400%)
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $180 $194 +$14 (+8%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? No 76¢ 88¢ $110 $128 +$17 (+16%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $113 $117 +$5 (+4%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $116 $117 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Under 11¢ 28¢ $41 $103 +$62 (+151%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $70 $73 +$4 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 91¢ 91¢ $68 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 69¢ $39 $47 +$7 (+19%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $34 $35 +$2 (+5%)
Will Ghana be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $29 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 18¢ $30 $27 −$4 (-12%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $31 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+18%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 74¢ $7 $26 +$19 (+260%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $35 $21 −$15 (-42%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 24¢ $27 $9 −$18 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $15 +$10 +67%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $116 −$116 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $3 +$10 +307%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $282 +$14 +5%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $271 +$129 +47%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $554 −$554 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $6 +$567 +9086%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 +$36 +146%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $85 +$65 +76%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +650%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$19 +348%
CR Brasil to score first vs. Fortaleza EC? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $118 +$32 +27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $8 +$11 +133%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $11 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$9 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3 −$2 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $14 +$19 +140%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 +$5 +86%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $17 +$43 +250%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $71 −$67 -94%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 +$2 +209%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Ecuador to win the second half? Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 20 $114 +$22 +20%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: UD Almería O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $9 +$6 +67%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $17 +$13 +76%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 +$4 +60%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $101 +$14 +14%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $11 +$33 +286%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $4 +$22 +513%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $68 +$15 +22%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 −$18 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: UD Almería 1 - 2 Málaga CF? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 70¢ $18 1h
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 2h
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $2 2h
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 56¢ $3 2h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 2h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 2h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 2h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 2h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $22 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 59¢ $15 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $37 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 2h
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY No 0¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $39 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $16 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $22 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $16 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 21¢ $31 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 21¢ $23 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 21¢ $51 2h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 59¢ $37 2h
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY No 0¢ $3 2h
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY No 0¢ $3 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,685.64 · official $30,685.25 (match) · 953 history records