Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc60…b60e other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 24% −$9
sports 17% −$42
tech 5% −$2
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -2.0% -11.3% 10% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage124d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $237 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $386 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $226 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $179 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $230 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $166 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $169 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $197 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 01 $217 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $199 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $346 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $180 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $340 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $351 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $403 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $198 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $191 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $229 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $229 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $237 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $237 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $195 37d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $195 43d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $170 43d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $170 43d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $194 44d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $194 44d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $226 44d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $226 44d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $179 44d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $179 45d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $196 46d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $196 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $230 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $230 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 46d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $166 46d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $166 46d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $169 46d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $169 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 47d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $197 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 382 history records