Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdc63…ceaa politics 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,275per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$3
sports 16% −$2
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,275
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $311 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $312 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $2,095 +$2 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $3,016 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 03 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 02 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $1,986 −$2 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $799 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $311 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $311 115d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $312 115d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $312 115d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,079 115d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,081 129d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,016 129d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3,016 135d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,498 136d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 136d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $32 137d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $1,198 137d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,498 137d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $1,199 140d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,499 140d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $1,499 140d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,984 140d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $798 140d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $32 142d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,986 142d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 142d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $799 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records