Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc67…8f05 crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$751 (+2%) realized +$1,012 · open −$261
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate39%34W / 53L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$10,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$337
7 days−$654
14 days+$251
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$239
politics 37% +$955
sports 15% +$205
tech 3% +$93
crypto 3% −$462
weather 2% −$279
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.2% -16.0% 43% 36% -18.3%
≤30d 29 -17.8% -25.7% 41% 34% -7.3%
≤90d 83 -12.7% -21.0% 39% 14% -14.2%
all 87 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 15% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 15% -7.6%
10% -27.9% 13% -16.4%
15% -34.8% 11% -24.5%
20% -41.2% 8% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$65 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$10,205
Realized+$1,012
Unrealized−$261
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses34 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions35
Markets (closed)87 / 123
History coverage151d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $2,104 $2,430 +$326 (+15%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $2,000 $1,978 −$22 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2,100 $1,731 −$369 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $690 $787 +$97 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $654 $435 −$219 (-34%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $1,939 +$91 +5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $2,610 +$350 +13%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $100 −$94 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $693 −$683 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $400 +$293 +73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $84 +$218 +259%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $506 −$506 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$53 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$20 +166%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$90 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$24 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$17 +181%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $773 +$118 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $164 −$160 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $706 +$686 +97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,294 +$93 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 −$78 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $393 +$171 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $715 +$297 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 30 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 30 $290 −$290 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 4? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 2? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 4? Apr 30 $10 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 4? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 3? Apr 30 $10 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 3? Apr 30 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos Apr 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Joo Ho-young win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Apr 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? Apr 30 $20 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $18 42m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $2,002 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,205.14 · official $10,205.14 (match) · 310 history records