Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc68…7e40 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$210 (+1%) realized +$207 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%34W / 3L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$702per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$61
finance 18% +$78
world 16% +$32
economics 11% +$16
other 3% +$25
tech 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 88% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 92% 0% -8.7%
all 37 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.8%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$867) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×85.62 per $1 lost it wins $85.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$1,692
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses34 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage223d
Avg bet$702
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $982 $982 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $393 $395 +$3 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $315 $315 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 16 $393 +$9 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,269 +$12 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $211 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $627 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 24 $1,658 +$15 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 22 $626 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $245 +$3 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $1,643 +$10 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 03 $1,617 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 25 $1,563 +$52 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 11 $368 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 11 $1,195 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 March 2-8? Mar 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 2-8? Mar 07 $350 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs los kogutos (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Mar 06 $21 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $895 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 05 $868 +$25 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15? Feb 19 $868 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? Feb 13 $867 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 2-8? Feb 11 $329 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 2-8? Feb 11 $536 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 9? Feb 08 $864 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on February 6 Feb 07 $566 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $849 +$19 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $838 +$11 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 01 $807 +$31 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 13? Nov 15 $805 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 13? Nov 12 $803 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 11? Nov 12 $802 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 3-9? Nov 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 3-9? Nov 10 $10 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9? Nov 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $118k November 3-9? Nov 10 $375 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k November 3-9? Nov 10 $386 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 08 $760 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $982 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $186 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $216 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $158 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $424 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $185 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $235 4d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $208 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $158 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $100 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $100 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $158 14d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $211 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $629 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $628 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $839 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $839 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $627 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $471 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $157 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $626 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $627 31d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $208 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $208 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1,658 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,692.03 · official $1,692.03 (match) · 157 history records