Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdc69…2e56 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$137 (-33%) realized −$105 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$71
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$37
economics 14% −$59
sports 13% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +105.1% +85.5% 67% 67% +135.7%
≤30d 4 +53.8% +39.2% 50% 50% +103.5%
≤90d 5 +23.0% +11.3% 40% 40% -15.5%
all 9 -31.6% -38.2% 22% 22% -55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 22% -55.0%
10% -44.1% 22% -59.3%
15% -49.5% 22% -63.2%
20% -54.4% 22% -66.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$27 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage375d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $98 $69 −$28 (-29%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$30 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$45 +297%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $73 −$72 -98%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 45¢ $25 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $10 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $47 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $54 24d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $73 36d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 125d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 125d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 375d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 375d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 375d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.26 · official $145.26 (match) · 42 history records