Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DC 0xdc6a…94d7 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$5
politics 18% −$3
sports 6% −$10
world 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 6% -9.6%
all 111 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 6% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 101
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage89d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $377 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $273 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $392 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $310 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $117 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $116 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $211 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $227 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $208 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $300 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $115 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $120 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $108 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $333 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $108 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $380 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $120 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $4 17h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 19h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $41 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $16 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.71 · official $86.71 (match) · 311 history records