Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc6b…6bc0 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-6%) realized −$13 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$14
sports 15% +$5
world 15% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +23.0% +11.3% 40% 40% +39.4%
≤30d 5 +23.0% +11.3% 40% 40% +39.4%
≤90d 5 +23.0% +11.3% 40% 40% +39.4%
all 36 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 47% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 47% -12.5%
10% -12.2% 47% -20.9%
15% -20.7% 42% -28.5%
20% -28.5% 36% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage240d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $52 $43 −$9 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $30 −$4 -13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $5 +$7 +133%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Dec 09 $5 +$1 +24%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08? Dec 09 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23? Nov 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 23 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Nov 09 $1 +$3 +300%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $4 +$3 +61%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $33 −$29 -87%
Will Union Berlin vs. Bayern München end in a draw? Nov 08 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $2 +$3 +133%
Will Como win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $5 $0 -8%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $5 +$5 +102%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $24 +$14 +58%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $17 +$6 +36%
Torino vs. Napoli: O/U 2.5 Oct 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $5 $0 +9%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? Oct 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $14 +$4 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $43 57m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 58m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 79¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 19¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 187d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 187d
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 188d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 188d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 188d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 188d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 188d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 188d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 188d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 188d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 188d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 188d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 188d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 188d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 91¢ $25 188d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 188d
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.43 · official $43.44 (match) · 70 history records