Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdc6c…425c sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$502 (+4%) realized +$526 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$837per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,098
other 41% +$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.3% -24.3% 60% 53% -16.9%
≤30d 15 -16.3% -24.3% 60% 53% -16.9%
≤90d 15 -16.3% -24.3% 60% 53% -16.9%
all 15 -16.3% -24.3% 60% 53% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 53% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 53% -24.9%
15% -38.1% 27% -32.1%
20% -44.2% 13% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$548 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,999
Realized+$526
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$837
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3,022 $2,998 −$24 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $307 −$221 -72%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $459 −$450 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,056 −$1,030 -98%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 28 $1,013 +$86 +8%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $1,019 +$412 +40%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,067 +$269 +25%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $1,120 −$1,098 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $612 +$325 +53%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $776 +$174 +22%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $510 −$477 -94%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $311 +$86 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $791 +$318 +40%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $305 +$95 +31%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $941 +$683 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $3,087 4m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $86 35m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $459 36m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $307 53m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $102 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $646 1h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,099 1h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,013 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $307 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1,019 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $152 21h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $507 21h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $408 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $303 22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $817 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 86¢ $166 23h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $610 24h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes $10 24h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $612 25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $33 25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $510 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? SELL Yes 11¢ $397 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? BUY Yes $311 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $791 32h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $305 46h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,625 46h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $941 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,998.58 · official $2,998.58 (match) · 33 history records