Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc6d…da48 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%32W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$12
other 24% $0
politics 18% −$11
sports 12% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% −$8
finance 2% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 76 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 0% -9.8%
all 101 -1.9% -11.2% 32% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses32 / 69
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage490d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $61 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $61 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $60 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $120 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $61 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $80 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $196 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $72 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $77 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $120 −$11 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $115 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $185 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $117 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $16 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $23 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $59 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $60 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $4 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $73 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 06 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 06 $3 $0 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 06 $73 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $226 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $271 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $117 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $140 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $66 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $61 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $61 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $37 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $9 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $14 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $61 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $61 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $61 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $60 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $60 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $60 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $60 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $54 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $54 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $61 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $61 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $61 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $61 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $55 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $55 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 418 history records