Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc6f…a5f4 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 441d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$1
other 24% −$3
politics 14% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.5% +1.8% 100% 100% +1.8%
≤30d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 38% 15% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 38% 15% -9.2%
all 36 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -9.8%
10% -17.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage441d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +30%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $28 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $26 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $45 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $28 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 22 $21 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
New Pope in 2025? Apr 22 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mariana Mortágua be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.7% and 4.8% on April 11? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Apr 09 $17 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 08 $17 $0 -1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $19 −$3 -13%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 13h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $28 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $25 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $5 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $30 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $4 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 93 history records