Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc70…cc56 world 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$322 (+1%) realized +$352 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate61%81W / 52L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$14,653now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$117
14 days+$534
30 days−$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$1,351
finance 1% +$147
politics 1% +$2
other 1% +$80
sports 1% +$880
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.5% -35.3% 0% 0% -36.3%
≤30d 49 -4.0% -13.2% 57% 29% -9.2%
≤90d 133 +0.3% -9.2% 61% 37% -9.2%
all 133 +0.3% -9.2% 61% 37% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 37% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 17% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 10% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$119 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$14,653
Realized+$352
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses81 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions30
Markets (closed)133 / 164
History coverage88d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 85¢ $1,865 $1,971 +$106 (+6%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 46¢ $2,409 $1,695 −$714 (-30%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 74¢ $1,540 $1,585 +$45 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 72¢ $1,653 $1,581 −$72 (-4%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $943 $975 +$32 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $794 $811 +$17 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 74¢ $608 $646 +$38 (+6%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $586 $582 −$4 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $539 $562 +$23 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 99¢ $408 $516 +$108 (+26%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 60¢ $391 $473 +$81 (+21%)
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? No 65¢ 64¢ $372 $364 −$8 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 61¢ 99¢ $219 $353 +$134 (+61%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 88¢ $271 $333 +$62 (+23%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $306 $305 −$1 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 62¢ 63¢ $284 $288 +$3 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $216 $250 +$34 (+16%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $236 $241 +$5 (+2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 84¢ $196 $204 +$8 (+4%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? No 81¢ 86¢ $172 $183 +$11 (+6%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $173 $178 +$5 (+3%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? No 51¢ 60¢ $104 $121 +$16 (+16%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $110 $115 +$5 (+4%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 40¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 95¢ $47 $71 +$23 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $160 −$36 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $236 −$81 -34%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 19 $1,827 +$300 +16%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $764 −$473 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $376 +$330 +88%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $244 +$43 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $267 +$975 +365%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $373 +$375 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $839 +$169 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $535 +$9 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $339 −$280 -82%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $181 +$16 +9%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $593 −$22 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $684 −$226 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $890 −$272 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $233 −$233 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $657 +$18 +3%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$5 +43%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $99 −$98 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $218 −$47 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $119 −$7 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $345 +$27 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $83 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $429 −$9 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $323 −$70 -22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $157 −$108 -69%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $258 −$178 -69%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $991 −$786 -79%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $454 +$54 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $411 +$7 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $514 +$56 +11%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $215 −$5 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $862 +$129 +15%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $2,537 +$223 +9%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $116 +$16 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $249 +$39 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $861 +$211 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $32 +$7 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 31 $248 +$6 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? May 29 $30 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $456 +$12 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 29 $369 −$8 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $393 −$87 -22%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $187 −$168 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $284 +$11 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $47 +$5 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $313 −$26 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $67 53m
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $5 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $4 6h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $41 14h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 25h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $196 2d
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $52 2d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $5 2d
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $13 2d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $22 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $16 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1,304 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $35 4d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $79 5d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $29 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 5d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $21 5d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $4 5d
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $28 6d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $91 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $10 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $33 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $48 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $99 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $76 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,653.44 · official $14,653.44 (match) · 1653 history records