Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc70…7db5 sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$641 (+1%) realized +$710 · open −$69
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate78%124W / 35L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$6,652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$66
14 days−$124
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$71
world 23% +$129
other 21% +$72
crypto 10% −$214
politics 6% +$160
weather 5% +$9
finance 1% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.1% -0.4% 63% 21% -9.9%
≤30d 159 +2.9% -6.9% 78% 36% -9.0%
≤90d 159 +2.9% -6.9% 78% 36% -9.0%
all 159 +2.9% -6.9% 78% 36% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 36% -9.0%
10% -15.8% 28% -17.7%
15% -23.9% 22% -25.7%
20% -31.4% 18% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$58 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$6,652
Realized+$710
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses124 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)159 / 165
History coverage25d
Avg bet$435
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Brazil 100¢ 100¢ $3,992 $3,988 −$4 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $933 $935 +$2 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $800 $875 +$75 (+9%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 86¢ $426 $429 +$3 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 88¢ 70¢ $440 $352 −$88 (-20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 30¢ $131 $74 −$57 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $287 −$17 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $308 −$229 -74%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 19 $86 +$62 +72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $116 +$474 +408%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $45 −$10 -22%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $876 −$223 -25%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $889 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $273 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,008 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,027 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $644 +$1 +0%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,993 +$7 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $935 +$22 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2,985 +$9 +0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $1,114 −$20 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $365 −$365 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $863 +$182 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $684 +$113 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1,545 +$212 +14%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 08 $410 +$30 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $511 +$45 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $132 +$27 +20%
Australia vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $660 +$78 +12%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs My Queen (BO1) - CN League Stage 1 Gr Jun 06 $425 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $455 −$455 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $488 +$12 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,978 −$245 -6%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5) Jun 01 $212 $0 +0%
Spread: CD Mirandés (-1.5) Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) Jun 01 $1,205 +$1 +0%
Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5) Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $999 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs Team Yandex (+2.5) Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: YNDX (-2.5) vs Team Spirit (+2.5) Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $55 $0 +0%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 01 $490 $0 +0%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,398 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1,073 +$225 +21%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3,996 +$4 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $489 +$11 +2%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $3,959 +$8 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 30 $956 +$1 +0%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $374 +$3 +1%
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) May 30 $1,668 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $131 1h
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $3,992 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $429 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $440 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $933 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $270 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 20¢ $78 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 60¢ $149 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $590 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $137 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $150 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $35 17h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 42¢ $420 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $45 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $116 26h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 35¢ $86 39h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 32¢ $80 39h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $800 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $644 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $889 40h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 51¢ $511 40h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 47¢ $234 40h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 46h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 46h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 46h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 46h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $28 46h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 46h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $52 46h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $21 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,652.50 · official $6,657.50 (match) · 456 history records