Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc70…d387 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 27% −$28
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$9
economics 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage134d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $355 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $291 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $340 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $428 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $318 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $751 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $424 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $279 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $199 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $147 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $749 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $315 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $247 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $339 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 3h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 5h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 6h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 8h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 8h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 9h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 11h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 12h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 15h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 16h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 18h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 19h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 23h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 25h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 27h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 27h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 29h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 31h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 32h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 34h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 36h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 36h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 45h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $12 46h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $12 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.81 · official $55.81 (match) · 1407 history records