Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DC 0xdc73…2af4 crypto 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$56 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%74W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$629
other 13% +$11
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.1% +6.0% 86% 86% -6.8%
≤30d 7 +17.1% +6.0% 86% 86% -6.8%
≤90d 14 -8.4% -17.1% 71% 71% -9.5%
all 150 -33.3% -39.7% 49% 39% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 39% -26.7%
10% -45.5% 23% -33.7%
15% -50.7% 12% -40.1%
20% -55.6% 4% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses74 / 76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage106d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$16 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$41 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 03 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 03 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 03 $13 −$10 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 03 $21 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +11%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Mar 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 12 $40 −$20 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 12 $40 −$20 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 12 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 11 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 11 $50 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 11 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 11 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $24 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 46d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 16¢ $2 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $21 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.18 · official $99.18 (match) · 394 history records