Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc76…c867 crypto 1039 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate84%872W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$19
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 727 -1.3% -10.7% 81% 50% -9.9%
≤30d 1017 -1.6% -11.0% 84% 37% -10.5%
≤90d 1038 -2.2% -11.5% 84% 37% -10.8%
all 1038 -2.2% -11.5% 84% 37% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 37% -10.8%
10% -19.9% 20% -19.4%
15% -27.7% 10% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses872 / 166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1038 / 1039
History coverage68d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1038 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1928 history records