Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdc76…d308 sports 369 markets active 3h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$246 (-1%) realized −$247 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%214W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$13
14 days+$33
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$291
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +8.7% -1.6% 58% 58% -0.6%
≤30d 35 +8.1% -2.2% 60% 60% +2.7%
≤90d 152 -1.9% -11.3% 60% 45% -8.0%
all 365 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 48% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 48% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 40% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 33% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 24% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses214 / 151
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions4
Markets (closed)365 / 369
History coverage159d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +189%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +172%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$4 +41%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 +$5 +54%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $15 +$5 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $11 +$2 +20%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 19 $5 −$4 -78%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $30 +$2 +8%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $60 +$4 +7%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $10 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $60 +$3 +4%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $3 +$1 +38%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $4 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 13h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 13h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 37h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 37h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.67 · official $16.67 (match) · 731 history records