Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc7b…2510 other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$19
politics 42% −$25
sports 7% +$88
tech 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$2
economics 2% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 116 -0.8% -10.3% 3% 3% -9.6%
all 128 +1.4% -8.3% 7% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×17.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage115d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $426 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $307 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $285 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $299 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $258 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $340 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $320 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 13 $365 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $256 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 10 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 07 $344 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $305 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $296 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $324 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $377 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $268 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $331 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $306 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 26 $346 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $374 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $372 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $745 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $46 10h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 29h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 10d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 10d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 11d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 12d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $35 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 20d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 21d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $361 21d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $361 23d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $307 23d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $307 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $285 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $285 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $299 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $299 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $368 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.97 · official $58.97 (match) · 386 history records